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BBC Preview: Rockies' 3B logjam eased in interleague

By: Tristan H. Cockcroft  (archive)
ESPN.com

For even more statistics and advice to help you set your Baseball Challenge lineup, check out Tristan's Week 12 Fantasy Forecaster!

Though interleague play comes to a conclusion this week, there's one more week of those games to go. Why beat around the bush? Let's get right to my rankings as Baseball Challenge-listed designated hitters go, because that's one of the most significant impacts of interleague play. And away we go:

1. Jason Kubel, Twins (@MIL-3, @STL-3), 4.3: I know, I know, the Twins are on the road in National League parks all week, but who says Kubel can't play right field? It's not like the team has given signs it cares about outfield defense, and besides, Minnesota faces nothing but right-handed starters. Kubel's OPS against that side: 1.065.
2. Jim Thome, White Sox (LAD-3, CHC-3), 4.9: The best times to use Thome are in home games and games versus right-handed starters. The White Sox this week play all six of their games at home, and five against righty starters.
3. Jack Cust, Athletics (SF-3, COL-3), 4.3: It's a full slate of home games, and while three of them will come against left-handed starters, he has started each of Oakland's past five games against southpaws, and has sat only twice against them all year. Plus, he's a powerful type who walks. Good mix in the BBC.
4. Ian Stewart, Rockies (@LAA-3, @OAK-3), 3.9: The addition of the DH means no longer do the Rockies need to fret about who starts at third base, Garrett Atkins or Stewart. Stewart is a .291 hitter with five homers, 14 RBIs and a .952 OPS in 16 games in June, and his career OPS is actually higher on the road (.817) than at home (.738).
5. Pat Burrell, Rays (PHI-3, FLA-3), 3.7: I'll take the chance, why not? The Rays as a team perform better at home than on the road, which helps Burrell's runs/RBI potential, and they face three left-handed starters. In his career, Burrell has a .941 OPS against that side.

Tristan's top three pitching-staff values

1. Chicago Cubs (@ATL-1, @DET-3, @CHW-3 -- two-start pitchers Ryan Dempster and Carlos Zambrano), 6.8 price tag: I wish this team could buy a hit every now and then, but at least that late-inning rally against the White Sox this past Thursday offers some hope that this team can still win a ballgame. Can you believe that, since May 19, the Cubs have averaged 3.0 runs per game with a .649 team OPS? Here's an equally amazing stat: The Cubs' pitching staff has a 2.95 ERA and 1.24 WHIP during that span, ranking among the best in the game. Even with Chicago winners of only 10 of those 26 games, this staff has averaged 16.1 BBC points during that span. Amazing, isn't it? This has been an elite unit for the past month despite getting pathetic run support, and those are about the best two-start pitchers I could ask from this team.

2. Los Angeles Dodgers (@CHW-3, SEA-3 -- two-start pitcher Hiroki Kuroda), 7.3: No other pitching staff has been even close to as productive as the Dodgers in the BBC -- they lead with 1,021 points -- and as I pointed out in the Forecaster, L.A. has been successful in spite of getting only above-average performance from its rotation in the past couple of weeks. This is a bullpen-heavy staff performance; another incredible stat is that the Dodgers lead the majors with 20 relief wins, not to mention the team ranks second with 21 saves. But BBC owners don't care, as a win is a win, and a steady bullpen can go a long way toward protecting leads and guaranteeing the five-point win bonus. Neither of these opponents can hit, so I'm expecting continued dominance.

3. Chicago White Sox (LAD-3, CHC-3 -- two-start pitcher John Danks), 6.9: There's a tiny little factor that keeps them behind the two staffs I ranked ahead of them; see if you can guess what it is. Give up? Obviously it's that the White Sox battle the two teams whose staffs I ranked one and two, demonstrating how my pitching picks for Week 12 are entirely pitching-based, because these offenses haven't hit at all in June. Who cares about run support? Or wins? Just keep trotting out pitchers who can maintain a sub-3.00 weekly ERA and nearly a K a frame and that's a-OK with me. Danks, and for that matter Gavin Floyd, have bounced back from early-season slumps, and Jose Contreras looks as good right now as at any point previously in his career. If you want to play the hunch that the White Sox, not the Dodgers or Cubs, are going to win the bulk of these games, by all means I'm behind your pick.

Smack talk!

Want to talk smack? Feel free: E-mail me. And don't be afraid to bust my chops. I can take it.

Kingj41 in Chicago, Ill., writes: Aren't you kicking yourself for not grabbing [Joe] Mauer earlier in BB Challenge? I've got him locked in at $4.5 mil. He's played just about 20 fewer games than all the other catchers, and he's second in points. I don't think I'll let him go unless he gets hurt. I'm stealing production for that price.

Well, you are stealing production, "King," but I don't think I'd say I'm "kicking myself" for not buying in sooner. After all, I had Victor Martinez locked in cheap and he treated me well for well more than two months. It would have been different had I had Bengie Molina in there and had been trying to convince myself that he'd come around, all the while passing on Mauer. That said, it's a hit to my salary cap, but I'm not about to let that completely drive my decisions. Mauer is still at 5.6 for me, and I think well worth that price.

Boz in Colorado writes: Tristan, you HAD to know [Victor] Martinez would go deep as soon as you dropped him!

Gee, thanks for rubbing it in, Boz. What, no comment about the 3-for-5, eight-point BBC performance I also left on the table on Wednesday?

Daily dips

Monday, June 15: Derrek Lee, 1B, Cubs (versus Javier Vazquez), 3.9 price tag: These guys go way back, and Lee has had the advantage for much of their careers, batting .400 (20-for-50) with seven doubles, three home runs and 16 RBIs versus the right-hander. He's also a .311 hitter with a .949 OPS in 388 career games at Wrigley Field, .295 and .860 in 28 games there this season.

Tuesday, June 16: Carlos Pena, 1B, Rays (versus Jamie Moyer), 5.7: It has been four years since these two have faced each other, but Pena is nevertheless a .500 hitter (10-for-20) with three doubles and two home runs in his career against Moyer, those numbers accrued before Pena became the solid slugger he is today. Pena is also a .282 hitter with 11 homers and a 1.079 OPS in 33 home games this year.

Wednesday, June 17: Corey Hart, RF, Brewers (versus Nick Blackburn), 4.1: In a June 27, 2008, meeting, Hart went 2-for-3 against Blackburn, both of the hits home runs. It's not uncommon for Hart to excel during interleague play; he's a .315 hitter with 14 homers and a 1.004 OPS in 45 career games against American League teams. He's also a .290 hitter with a .935 OPS in 29 home games this season.

Thursday, June 18: Chris Davis, 1B, Rangers (versus Jon Garland), 3.8: If there's anything Davis can do this season, it's swat home runs; even striking out as often as he is he's still on pace for 33 bombs. He sure enjoyed facing Garland last year, going 3-for-5 with one double and two home runs against the right-hander, and it's not like Chase Field is much less hitter-friendly than Rangers Ballpark.

Friday, June 19: Jack Cust, DH, Athletics (versus Jason Hammel), 4.3: Cust has never been bothered by playing in a pitchers' park; he's a .260 hitter with a .932 OPS in 169 career games at McAfee Coliseum. In fact, he has hit 41 of his 76 career homers there. He has also been remarkably successful against Hammel, going 2-for-3 with two home runs, four RBIs and one walk in his career versus the right-hander.

Saturday, June 20: J.D. Drew, RF, Red Sox (versus Javier Vazquez), 4.6: OK, so I'm beating up on Vazquez a fair share this week. Hey, he's been around awhile, that's how opponents rack up big numbers against him. Drew is a lifetime .417 hitter (10-for-24) with two doubles and four home runs versus the right-hander, and a .283 hitter with 16 homers and a .933 OPS in 92 career games at Turner Field.

Sunday, June 21: Aaron Hill, 2B, Blue Jays (versus Jamie Moyer), 4.5: The Blue Jays as a team have beaten up on Mr. Moyer in recent years, having faced him once each in 2007, 2008 and now 2009, and are coming off a game at Philadelphia this past Wednesday in which they totaled six runs on 10 hits, two of them home runs, against him. Hill was one of that game's standouts, and his numbers on that day brought him to a .400 career batting average (8-for-20) and one homer against the lefty.

Tristan's Week 12 lineup

Total points: 2,997 (through Thursday).
Percentage: 97.5. Overall rank: 1,359th.
Ranking in Fantasy Editorial Group: 105th.

C: Joe Mauer, Twins (@MIL-3, @STL-3), locked at 5.6 price tag, 5.7 market: If you don't own either him or Victor Martinez, you're asking for trouble.
1B: Mark Teixeira, Yankees (@ATL-3, @NYM-3), locked at 5.0, 6.0 market: Who cares if A-Rod isn't hitting behind him? He's protecting "Tex" nicely in the lineup, and that's all that counts with this pick.
2B: Ian Kinsler, Rangers (@ARI-3, SD-3), locked at 5.3, 5.4 market: Just a fan and it's an affordable price. Not like either of these staffs is an elite one.
3B: David Wright, Mets (STL-4, NYY-3), locked at 4.7, 5.7 market: He's got the extra game and terrorized the Yankees the last time those teams battled.
SS: Hanley Ramirez, Marlins (BAL-3, @TB-3), locked at 5.0, 5.2 market: Can Ben Zobrist really finish ahead of this guy in BBC points for the season? My bet: no.
LF: Ryan Braun, Brewers (MIN-3, SF-3), locked at 4.8, 5.4 market: He has averaged 4.4 BBC points per game during his interleague career.
CF: Chris Young, Diamondbacks (TEX-3, LAA-3), 3.9: There's a mild health concern here, so check back, but I'm jumping on this bandwagon if he's capable of playing. He's a .319 hitter with three homers and six steals in his past 13 games.
RF: Corey Hart, Brewers (MIN-3, SF-3), 4.1: Again, he's a beast in his interleague games, including a .440 batting average (11-for-25), three doubles, three home runs and nine RBIs in his past six this season.
DH: Jason Kubel, Twins (@MIL-3, @STL-3), 4.3: I'd be surprised if he played fewer than five of these games. What do you think, the Twins want to play Carlos Gomez ahead of him?
Pitching staff: Cubs (@ATL-1, @DET-3, @CHW-3), 6.8: Hmmm … "Cockcroft Curse" meets "Curse of the Billy Goat"?

Tristan H. Cockcroft is a fantasy baseball analyst for ESPN.com and a two-time champion of the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) experts league. You can e-mail him here.



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